Applied Economics Project
Posted on Tuesday, 15 January 2013
Economic Indicators
|
Years
|
Unemployment
|
GDP
|
Investment
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1999-00
|
7
|
3.91
|
10.19
|
|
2000-01
|
6
|
1.96
|
8.56
|
|
2001-02
|
6.3
|
3.11
|
3.19
|
|
2002-03
|
7.8
|
4.73
|
10.66
|
|
2003-04
|
7.7
|
7.48
|
14.45
|
|
2004-05
|
8.3
|
8.96
|
34.3
|
|
2005-06
|
6.6
|
5.82
|
37.97
|
|
2006-07
|
6.5
|
6.81
|
15.89
|
|
2007-08
|
5.6
|
4.1
|
15.46
|
|
2008-09
|
7.4
|
2
|
13.07
|
|
|
|
|
|
We
calculated the average of unemployment rate, average GDP and average
Investment.
Which is respectively as follows:-
The average GDP of last ten years 4.88 percent shows that
the average growth rate GDP of per year and 16.374 percent this figure shows
that the average growth rate of
Investment of per year for last ten years and the average ratio of the
unemployment 6.92 percent. This average ratio should be increase or decrease by
the ratio of these indicators as we found stander deviation of these
statistics. 0.823 percent of unemployment, and 10.5317 percent for the GDP, and
2.225 percent for the Investment these figures represent the data after
applying the statistical tools that indicators may be deviated.

Regression
|
Years
|
Growth
rate GDP
|
GDP
|
Investment
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1999-00
|
100
|
3.91
|
10.19
|
|
2000-01
|
-49.87212
|
1.96
|
8.56
|
|
2001-02
|
58.673469
|
3.11
|
3.19
|
|
2002-03
|
52.090032
|
4.73
|
10.66
|
|
2003-04
|
58.139535
|
7.48
|
14.45
|
|
2004-05
|
19.786096
|
8.96
|
34.3
|
|
2005-06
|
-35.04464
|
5.82
|
37.97
|
|
2006-07
|
17.010309
|
6.81
|
15.89
|
|
2007-08
|
-39.79442
|
4.1
|
15.46
|
|
2008-09
|
-51.21951
|
2
|
13.07
|
We choosed he
Investment as independent variable (X) and GDP as dependent variable (Y)
because if Investment Increases then the GDP will definitely increases
according to the law of Economics. The Y-intercept (a) is 2.66 that show us the
fixed investment and the slope (b) per unit change which is 0.135 percent.
%Δ Growth
Rate:-
We
calculated the growth rate for last ten years that shows the percent increase
or decrease in annual GDP. The negative value shows that percent decrease in
GDP.
|
%Δ Investment
|
%Δ Unemployment Rate
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100
|
100
|
|
-15.99607458
|
-14.28571429
|
|
-62.73364486
|
5
|
|
234.169279
|
23.80952381
|
|
35.55347092
|
-1.282051282
|
|
137.3702422
|
7.792207792
|
|
10.69970845
|
-20.48192771
|
|
-58.15117198
|
-1.515151515
|
|
-2.706104468
|
-13.84615385
|
|
-15.45924968
|
32.14285714
|
Projection
|
Years
|
Investment
|
Projected GDP
|
|
2010
|
10.19
|
6.0575
|
|
2011
|
8.56
|
6.17981
|
|
2012
|
3.19
|
6.90008
|
|
2013
|
10.66
|
7.447757
|
|
2014
|
14.45
|
7.682864
|
|
2015
|
34.3
|
8.265875
|
|
2016
|
37.97
|
8.371877
|
|
2017
|
15.89
|
8.896451
|
|
2018
|
15.46
|
9.313664
|
|
2019
|
13.07
|
9.516155
|
|
|
|
|
We assumed
the value of x for the projection of the GDP growth rate of coming ten years.
For instance, if the growth rate of Investment 37.97 percent then the GDP
growth rate would be 8.37 percent

Correlation:-
r = 0.64
The relationship between GDP and investment is Strong positive. According
to the tool of correlation. It stated that if increase in Investment also
increase in GDP in other hand if decrease Investment in then also decrease in
GDP.
Economic Indicators
Regression
|
Years
|
Investment
|
Unemployment rate
(%)
|
|
|
|
|
|
1999-00
|
10.19
|
7
|
|
2000-01
|
8.56
|
6
|
|
2001-02
|
3.19
|
6.3
|
|
2002-03
|
10.66
|
7.8
|
|
2003-04
|
14.45
|
7.7
|
|
2004-05
|
34.3
|
8.3
|
|
2005-06
|
37.97
|
6.6
|
|
2006-07
|
15.89
|
6.5
|
|
2007-08
|
15.46
|
5.6
|
|
2008-09
|
13.07
|
7.4
|
We
choose Unemployment as independent variable (X) and Investment as dependent
variable (Y) because if Unemployment Increases then the investment will
definitely increases according to the law of Economics. The Y-intercept (a) is
-10.1683 that show us the fixed Unemployment and the slope (b) per unit change
which is 3.835596 percent.

Projection:
|
Years
|
Investment
|
Projected
Unemployment
|
|
1999
|
8.23
|
21.397865
|
|
2000
|
10.22
|
29.03051
|
|
2001
|
15.36
|
48.74498
|
|
2002
|
18.89
|
62.284295
|
|
2003
|
20.99
|
70.338845
|
|
2004
|
23.56
|
80.19608
|
|
2005
|
25.36
|
87.09998
|
|
2006
|
28.22
|
98.06951
|
|
2006
|
30.76
|
107.81168
|
|
2007
|
32.45
|
114.293675
|
We assumed the value of x for the
projection of the growth rate of Investment coming ten years. For instance, if
the growth rate of Investment 87.09 percent then the growth rate of
Unemployment would be 25.36 percent.
Correlation:-
r = 0.2
The relationship between
Investment and Unemployment is weak positive. According to the tool of
correlation. It stated that if increase in Unemployment also increase in
investment in other hand if decrease in unemployment then also decrease in
Investment.
|
|
Years
|
Unemployment
rate (%)
|
GDP
|
|
|
|
X
|
Y
|
|
1
|
1999-00
|
7
|
3.91
|
|
2
|
2000-01
|
6
|
1.96
|
|
3
|
2001-02
|
6.3
|
3.11
|
|
4
|
2002-03
|
7.8
|
4.73
|
|
5
|
2003-04
|
7.7
|
7.48
|
|
6
|
2004-05
|
8.3
|
8.96
|
|
7
|
2005-06
|
6.6
|
5.82
|
|
8
|
2006-07
|
6.5
|
6.81
|
|
9
|
2007-08
|
5.6
|
4.1
|
|
10
|
2008-09
|
7.4
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unemployment and GDP
We calculated the average of unemployment rate, average GDP.
Which is respectively as follows:-
The average GDP of last ten years 4.88 percent shows that
the average growth rate per year and Average for Unemployment is 6.92 percent
this figure shows that this is average
unemployment rate of per year for last ten years. This average ratio should be
increase or decrease by the ratio of these indicators as we found in stander
deviation of these statistics. 0.823 percent of unemployment and 2.226 percent
for the GDP, these figures represents, and the data may be deviated after
applying the statistical tools.

Regression
|
Years
|
Unemployment
rate (%)
|
GDP
|
|
|
X
|
Y
|
|
1999-00
|
7
|
3.91
|
|
2000-01
|
6
|
1.96
|
|
2001-02
|
6.3
|
3.11
|
|
2002-03
|
7.8
|
4.73
|
|
2003-04
|
7.7
|
7.48
|
|
2004-05
|
8.3
|
8.96
|
|
2005-06
|
6.6
|
5.82
|
|
2006-07
|
6.5
|
6.81
|
|
2007-08
|
5.6
|
4.1
|
|
2008-09
|
7.4
|
2
|
We choused Unemployment as independent variable on (X) axis
and GDP as dependent variable on (Y) axis. According to the last decade
situation of Pakistan,
if there is an increase in Unemployment, there have also been increased GDP. The
Y-intercept (a) is 48.7253 that show us the fixed employment and the slope (b)
per unit change which is 0.02234 percent.
Projection
|
Years
|
Unemployment
|
Projected GDP
|
|
2010
|
10
|
48.96028504
|
|
2011
|
11
|
48.98377935
|
|
2012
|
12
|
49.00727366
|
|
2013
|
15
|
49.07775659
|
|
2014
|
17
|
49.12474521
|
|
2015
|
18
|
49.14823952
|
|
2016
|
20
|
49.19522814
|
|
2017
|
19
|
49.17173383
|
|
2018
|
25
|
49.31269969
|
|
2019
|
24
|
49.28920538
|
We assumed the value of x for the projection of the
Unemployment of coming ten years. For instance, if the Unemployment rate will
be 37.97 percent then the GDP growth rate would be 8.37 percent.
Correlation:-
r = 0.53
The relationship between Unemployment and GDP is Strong positive.
According to the tool of correlation. It stated that if increase in
Unemployment also increase in GDP in other hand if decrease in unemployment
then also decrease in GDP. But actually
it is inversely related it means that if unemployment increases then GDP will
decreases. It is difficult to explain because there are some other factors that
may be influence it such as, government Expenditure or Investment (in
technology).
Social Indicators
|
Years
|
Hospitals
|
%Δ Hospitals
|
|
|
|
|
|
1998
|
872
|
100
|
|
1998-1999
|
879
|
0.802752294
|
|
1999-00
|
876
|
-0.341296928
|
|
2000-01
|
907
|
3.538812785
|
|
2001-02
|
906
|
-0.110253583
|
|
2002-03
|
906
|
0
|
|
2003-04
|
916
|
1.103752759
|
|
2004-05
|
919
|
0.327510917
|
|
2005-06
|
924
|
0.544069641
|
|
2006-07
|
945
|
2.272727273
|
In this
data we calculated the average hospitals which are 905 and the stander deviation per year which is 22.11.
We also calculated the per year growth rate of hospitals.
In 1999, %Δ
in Hospitals is Negative because it may be any disaster or data inconsistency
matter. So it is not easy to explain…………………….!

Teachers
|
Years
|
Teachers
|
%Δ Teachers
|
|
|
|
|
|
1998
|
4911
|
100
|
|
1999
|
5914
|
20.42353899
|
|
2000
|
5988
|
1.251268177
|
|
2001
|
5160
|
-13.82765531
|
|
2002
|
6180
|
19.76744186
|
|
2003
|
11404
|
84.53074434
|
|
2004
|
13208
|
15.81901087
|
|
2005
|
13967
|
5.746517262
|
|
2006
|
16245
|
16.30987327
|
|
2007
|
19099
|
17.56848261
|
In this data we calculated the average Teachers 10207.6 and the stander deviation per
year which is 4960.52.
We also calculated the per year growth rate of Teachers. In
2001, %Δ in Teachers is
Negative because it may be any disaster or data inconsistency matter. So it is
not easy to explain…………………….!
Discussion