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Applied Economics Project

Posted on Tuesday, 15 January 2013


Economic Indicators

Years
Unemployment
GDP
Investment




1999-00
7
3.91
10.19
2000-01
6
1.96
8.56
2001-02
6.3
3.11
3.19
2002-03
7.8
4.73
10.66
2003-04
7.7
7.48
14.45
2004-05
8.3
8.96
34.3
2005-06
6.6
5.82
37.97
2006-07
6.5
6.81
15.89
2007-08
5.6
4.1
15.46
2008-09
7.4
2
13.07





            We calculated the average of unemployment rate, average GDP and average Investment.
Which is respectively as follows:-
The average GDP of last ten years 4.88 percent shows that the average growth rate GDP of per year and 16.374 percent this figure shows that the average growth rate of  Investment of per year for last ten years and the average ratio of the unemployment 6.92 percent. This average ratio should be increase or decrease by the ratio of these indicators as we found stander deviation of these statistics. 0.823 percent of unemployment, and 10.5317 percent for the GDP, and 2.225 percent for the Investment these figures represent the data after applying the statistical tools that indicators may be deviated.


Regression

Years
Growth rate GDP
GDP
Investment




1999-00
100
3.91
10.19
2000-01
-49.87212
1.96
8.56
2001-02
58.673469
3.11
3.19
2002-03
52.090032
4.73
10.66
2003-04
58.139535
7.48
14.45
2004-05
19.786096
8.96
34.3
2005-06
-35.04464
5.82
37.97
2006-07
17.010309
6.81
15.89
2007-08
-39.79442
4.1
15.46
2008-09
-51.21951
2
13.07


            We choosed he Investment as independent variable (X) and GDP as dependent variable (Y) because if Investment Increases then the GDP will definitely increases according to the law of Economics. The Y-intercept (a) is 2.66 that show us the fixed investment and the slope (b) per unit change which is 0.135 percent.

Growth Rate:-
            We calculated the growth rate for last ten years that shows the percent increase or decrease in annual GDP. The negative value shows that percent decrease in GDP.


%Δ Investment
%Δ Unemployment Rate




100
100
-15.99607458
-14.28571429
-62.73364486
5
234.169279
23.80952381
35.55347092
-1.282051282
137.3702422
7.792207792
10.69970845
-20.48192771
-58.15117198
-1.515151515
-2.706104468
-13.84615385
-15.45924968
32.14285714
           



Projection

Years
Investment
Projected GDP
2010
10.19
6.0575
2011
8.56
6.17981
2012
3.19
6.90008
2013
10.66
7.447757
2014
14.45
7.682864
2015
34.3
8.265875
2016
37.97
8.371877
2017
15.89
8.896451
2018
15.46
9.313664
2019
13.07
9.516155




            We assumed the value of x for the projection of the GDP growth rate of coming ten years. For instance, if the growth rate of Investment 37.97 percent then the GDP growth rate would be 8.37 percent


Correlation:-


                                          r = 0.64
                    The relationship between GDP and investment is Strong positive. According to the tool of correlation. It stated that if increase in Investment also increase in GDP in other hand if decrease Investment in then also decrease in GDP.

Economic Indicators
Regression

Years
Investment
Unemployment rate (%)



1999-00
10.19
7
2000-01
8.56
6
2001-02
3.19
6.3
2002-03
10.66
7.8
2003-04
14.45
7.7
2004-05
34.3
8.3
2005-06
37.97
6.6
2006-07
15.89
6.5
2007-08
15.46
5.6
2008-09
13.07
7.4

                We choose Unemployment as independent variable (X) and Investment as dependent variable (Y) because if Unemployment Increases then the investment will definitely increases according to the law of Economics. The Y-intercept (a) is -10.1683 that show us the fixed Unemployment and the slope (b) per unit change which is 3.835596 percent.





  Projection:
                
Years
Investment
Projected Unemployment
1999
8.23
21.397865
2000
10.22
29.03051
2001
15.36
48.74498
2002
18.89
62.284295
2003
20.99
70.338845
2004
23.56
80.19608
2005
25.36
87.09998
2006
28.22
98.06951
2006
30.76
107.81168
2007
32.45
114.293675
  
 We assumed the value of x for the projection of the growth rate of Investment coming ten years. For instance, if the growth rate of Investment 87.09 percent then the growth rate of Unemployment would be 25.36 percent.


  Correlation:-


                                          r = 0.2
                    The relationship between Investment and Unemployment is weak positive. According to the tool of correlation. It stated that if increase in Unemployment also increase in investment in other hand if decrease in unemployment then also decrease in Investment. 















Years
Unemployment rate (%)
GDP


X
Y
1
1999-00
7
3.91
2
2000-01
6
1.96
3
2001-02
6.3
3.11
4
2002-03
7.8
4.73
5
2003-04
7.7
7.48
6
2004-05
8.3
8.96
7
2005-06
6.6
5.82
8
2006-07
6.5
6.81
9
2007-08
5.6
4.1
10
2008-09
7.4
2




Unemployment and GDP





















We calculated the average of unemployment rate, average GDP.
Which is respectively as follows:-
The average GDP of last ten years 4.88 percent shows that the average growth rate per year and Average for Unemployment is 6.92 percent this figure shows that this is  average unemployment rate of per year for last ten years. This average ratio should be increase or decrease by the ratio of these indicators as we found in stander deviation of these statistics. 0.823 percent of unemployment and 2.226 percent for the GDP, these figures represents, and the data may be deviated after applying the statistical tools.



Regression

Years
Unemployment rate (%)
GDP

X
Y
1999-00
7
3.91
2000-01
6
1.96
2001-02
6.3
3.11
2002-03
7.8
4.73
2003-04
7.7
7.48
2004-05
8.3
8.96
2005-06
6.6
5.82
2006-07
6.5
6.81
2007-08
5.6
4.1
2008-09
7.4
2


We choused Unemployment as independent variable on (X) axis and GDP as dependent variable on (Y) axis. According to the last decade situation of Pakistan, if there is an increase in Unemployment, there have also been increased GDP. The Y-intercept (a) is 48.7253 that show us the fixed employment and the slope (b) per unit change which is 0.02234 percent.
Projection

Years
Unemployment
Projected GDP
2010
10
48.96028504
2011
11
48.98377935
2012
12
49.00727366
2013
15
49.07775659
2014
17
49.12474521
2015
18
49.14823952
2016
20
49.19522814
2017
19
49.17173383
2018
25
49.31269969
2019
24
49.28920538

We assumed the value of x for the projection of the Unemployment of coming ten years. For instance, if the Unemployment rate will be 37.97 percent then the GDP growth rate would be 8.37 percent.

  Correlation:-


                                          r = 0.53
                    The relationship between Unemployment and GDP is Strong positive. According to the tool of correlation. It stated that if increase in Unemployment also increase in GDP in other hand if decrease in unemployment then also decrease in GDP.  But actually it is inversely related it means that if unemployment increases then GDP will decreases. It is difficult to explain because there are some other factors that may be influence it such as, government Expenditure or Investment (in technology).

Social Indicators

Years
Hospitals
%Δ Hospitals



1998
872
100
1998-1999
879
0.802752294
1999-00
876
-0.341296928
2000-01
907
3.538812785
2001-02
906
-0.110253583
2002-03
906
0
2003-04
916
1.103752759
2004-05
919
0.327510917
2005-06
924
0.544069641
2006-07
945
2.272727273

            In this data we calculated the average hospitals which are 905 and the stander deviation per year which is 22.11.
We also calculated the per year growth rate of hospitals.
In 1999, %Δ in Hospitals is Negative because it may be any disaster or data inconsistency matter. So it is not easy to explain…………………….!












Teachers

Years
Teachers
%Δ Teachers



1998
4911
100
1999
5914
20.42353899
2000
5988
1.251268177
2001
5160
-13.82765531
2002
6180
19.76744186
2003
11404
84.53074434
2004
13208
15.81901087
2005
13967
5.746517262
2006
16245
16.30987327
2007
19099
17.56848261

In this data we calculated the average Teachers 10207.6 and the stander deviation per year which is 4960.52.
We also calculated the per year growth rate of Teachers. In 2001, %Δ in Teachers is Negative because it may be any disaster or data inconsistency matter. So it is not easy to explain…………………….!

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